By E. Lundsgaarde
Combining experiences of demography, weather swap, know-how and innovation, political improvement, new actors in foreign improvement, and worldwide governance frameworks, this publication highlights the key underlying determinants of swap within the African context and key uncertainties in regards to the continent's destiny improvement clients.
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Additional resources for Africa Toward 2030: Challenges for Development Policy
The present work adopts insights from the scenario approach to pursue the reflective aims of scenario analysis in particular. It does not aspire to fulfil the more comprehensive list of objectives associated with the use of the term ‘scenario planning’, which implies the use of scenarios within an organisation to test the robustness of strategies against the virtual wind tunnels that scenarios represent and the preparation of recommendations on specific decisions that organisations should take (Ralston and Wilson 2006).
While foresight techniques have been put to use in diverse contexts across the African continent, the availability of information on the outcome of scenario development processes and evaluations of the utility of these exercises has often been limited. There are several possible reasons for this. If the goal of scenario exercises is to encourage dialogue among stakeholders in a given locality rather than to examine strategic options, there may be little incentive for participants to make the results of their scenario development processes broadly available.
As in other qualitative scenario development exercises, the organisers of the process viewed the framing of future challenges as a central goal. 4 Limitations of Scenario Methods and Assessment Criteria Before outlining the manner in which the scenario analysis tradition has guided the organisation of the present study, it is useful to highlight some cautionary notes about using scenarios. For many practitioners of scenario methods, there is an automatic carefulness built into their analyses stemming from the modesty of stated goals of scenario analysis initiatives and the acknowledgement of the fictional quality of the scenarios themselves.
Africa Toward 2030: Challenges for Development Policy by E. Lundsgaarde