By Robert Leeson
Nearly all of up to date macroeconomics is underpinned via a Phillips curve of 1 style or one other, and this quantity collects for the 1st time the foremost works of 1 of the good economists. as well as twelve significant items, twenty-nine economists together with Lawrence Klein, James Meade, Thomas Sargent, Peter Phillips, David Hendry, William Baumol, Richard Lipsey and Geoffrey Harcourt spotlight and interpret Phillips' ongoing impression. This quantity additionally comprises six of Phillips' formerly unpublished essays, 4 of which have been lengthy idea to were misplaced.
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Extra resources for A. W. H. Phillips: Collected Works in Contemporary Perspective
In chapter 10, Bill stresses the value of a visible presentation of the responses to macroeconomic changes in a hydraulic model. But he precedes his exposition of the characteristics of the prototype, described as the simple model, by the same general approach via the commodity market as in his paper discussed above. It is apparent from the generality of the subsequent presentation and from his title that his interest had already shifted to the area of his future work. 38 Walter Newlyn In my article on the prototype (Newlyn 1950), contemporary with Bill's, there is a major overlap with his (greatly superior) exposition of its characteristics, and my emphasis was on the teaching methods, drawing on experience, and therefore not relevant to the theme of this volume.
I am quite certain that Bill was very conscious of the limitations to which you could reduce the level of unemployment without incurring a runaway in¯ation' (correspondence). For a discussion of these, and related matters, see Leeson (1999). 25 Richard Lipsey agrees with this assessment. `It is indeed a mystery that he did not protest in print. Perhaps it's just that writing did not come easily to him. To someone so insightful, his total publication record was scant. He was a great talker and spent hours talking to students and colleagues when the rest of us were drafting our latest article.
When Friedman conveyed this suggestion to me, I converted the implied differential equation into an exponentially weighted average of past price changes and found it provided an empirically workable money demand equation. Phillips deserves credit for what later came to be called `adaptive expectations'. When rational expectations captured the attention of the profession in the 1960s (following Muth's famous article), adaptive expectations were largely abandoned. Years later, I became aware that data on forward exchange rates existed for the German hyperin¯ation and could be used as observed expectations of changes in exchange rates and as proxies for expectations of price in¯ation.
A. W. H. Phillips: Collected Works in Contemporary Perspective by Robert Leeson